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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime strugglers rising together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still